Free Tool · Decision Model
Should you actually file this patent?
A patent is an investment under uncertainty. This weighs what filing costs against the profit it would actually defend — discounted by the odds a rival copies you and the odds the patent holds up. You get a verdict and the break-even number.
The cost side
The upside
The expected protected value is more than 3× the cost of filing. As long as the invention clears about $6,807/yr in profit it pays for the patent — and it comfortably does on your numbers.
This is a planning heuristic, not financial or legal advice. It ignores soft value — deterrence, fundraising signal, and acquisition appealappealAfter repeated rejections, an applicant can appeal to the PTAB — and from there to federal court. Slow and expensive.Read more → — which often justify filing even when the direct ROI is thin. Talk to a patent attorney before deciding.
The model
Protected value, not gross value.
A patent doesn't earn you the whole profit of your product — it earns you the slice you'd otherwise lose to copycats, and only if it actually holds up. So the model multiplies your annual profit by the years it stays relevant (capped at the 20-year term), then by the chance a rival would copy it, then by your confidence the patent grants and survives a challenge. That expected protected value is what filing is really buying.
protected value = annual profit × years (≤20) × P(copied) × P(granted & valid)